It takes the average reader and 24 minutes to read A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks by Mr.Nassim N. Taleb
Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more
This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.
A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks by Mr.Nassim N. Taleb is 24 pages long, and a total of 6,096 words.
This makes it 8% the length of the average book. It also has 7% more words than the average book.
The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes and 33 minutes to read A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks aloud.
A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks is suitable for students ages 8 and up.
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