It takes the average reader to read Confessions of a Recovering Economist by Jeremy Arkes
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The existence of the "hot hand" in basketball (achieving a "zone" of temporary elevated play) is universally accepted by players and fans ? unless you're an economist. Unable to find evidence for it, the economists (including some Nobel laureates) concluded that the hot hand was a myth and that belief in it was a cognitive bias of seeing patterns in randomized data. Whereas the "hot hand" has been used by economists to argue they know things better than experts in other fields, it turns out the economists were wrong, and everyone else was correct. Research on the hot hand is representative of much economic research, as it contains many of the transgressions of economists. Economists often fail to recognize obvious systematic inaccuracies, portray greater certainty than is warranted, mis-interpret statistical tests, improperly apply their findings to new situations, and commit their own cognitive bias (the Dunning-Kruger effect) by believing they understand an issue just because they can estimate a regression. The end result is that when economists, from both sides of the political spectrum, give insights on the popular issue of the day (such as tax cuts and minimum-wage increases), there is likely very weak evidence to support their opinions. As the author makes these arguments, he gives confessions of the incompetence and transgressions of economists, including some he was guilty of. The book discusses what we really do know about important economic issues and how economists measure GDP growth incorrectly, often fail to predict recessions, and poorly identify and time recessions. For those interested, you will get simple descriptions of the basics and pitfalls of regression analysis to help you judge studies yourself. (This could even be handy for long-time practitioners, as these are the concepts, missing in the conventional training, that would have helped economists, including the author, avoid many of their mistakes.)In the end, Arkes offers simple recommendations aimed towards his ultimate goal of bringing relevance, accuracy, and integrity back to economics.
Confessions of a Recovering Economist by Jeremy Arkes is 0 pages long, and a total of 0 words.
This makes it 0% the length of the average book. It also has 0% more words than the average book.
The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes to read Confessions of a Recovering Economist aloud.
Confessions of a Recovering Economist is suitable for students ages 2 and up.
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