It takes the average reader and 51 minutes to read Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade by Shushanik Hakobyan
Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more
This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade by Shushanik Hakobyan is 51 pages long, and a total of 12,801 words.
This makes it 17% the length of the average book. It also has 16% more words than the average book.
The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes 1 hour and 9 minutes to read Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade aloud.
Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade is suitable for students ages 8 and up.
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