It takes the average reader and 27 minutes to read Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? by Mr.David A Reichsfeld
Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more
We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? by Mr.David A Reichsfeld is 27 pages long, and a total of 6,939 words.
This makes it 9% the length of the average book. It also has 8% more words than the average book.
The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes and 37 minutes to read Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? aloud.
Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? is suitable for students ages 8 and up.
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