How Long to Read Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation

How Long Does it Take to Read Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation?

It takes the average reader 1 hour and 28 minutes to read Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation by Paul K. Davis

Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more

Description

This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.

How long is Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation?

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation by Paul K. Davis is 86 pages long, and a total of 22,016 words.

This makes it 29% the length of the average book. It also has 27% more words than the average book.

How Long Does it Take to Read Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation Aloud?

The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes 2 hours to read Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation aloud.

What Reading Level is Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation?

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation is suitable for students ages 10 and up.

Note that there may be other factors that effect this rating besides length that are not factored in on this page. This may include things like complex language or sensitive topics not suitable for students of certain ages.

When deciding what to show young students always use your best judgement and consult a professional.

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