How Long to Read Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models
By Jing Xie
How Long Does it Take to Read Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models?
It takes the average reader and 39 minutes to read Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models by Jing Xie
Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more
Description
Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
How long is Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models?
Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models by Jing Xie is 38 pages long, and a total of 9,804 words.
This makes it 13% the length of the average book. It also has 12% more words than the average book.
How Long Does it Take to Read Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models Aloud?
The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes and 53 minutes to read Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models aloud.
What Reading Level is Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models?
Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models is suitable for students ages 8 and up.
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