How Long to Read J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy

How Long Does it Take to Read J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy?

It takes the average reader to read J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy by Michael Emmett Brady

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Description

The standard view of the economics profession is that Keynes was a brilliant, intuitive, non-rigorous innovator. These essays show that Keynes backed up his "intuitions" with a rigorous mathematical and logical supporting analysis which has been overlooked for the last 60-70 years.Keynes was the first scholar in history to systematically develop an interval valued approach to the estimation of probabilities.Unfortunately,Keynes called his interval estimates "nonnumerical(or nonmeasurable) probabilities",since they required two numerals,not one,to estimate the probability.F P Ramsey badly misinterpreted Keynes´s wording to mean that ,in general,numbers could not be used to calculate probabilities.Ramsey´s misinterpretation,which is primarily based on his reading of only one chapter in the TP,chapter III, has been passed down to literally hundreds of thousands of economists,historians,philosophers,statisticians,psychologists,decision theorists,and mathematical social scientists,etc.,over the last half century.The current misbelief ,that Ramsey devastated the logical foundations of Keynes´s logical approach to probability to such a degree that Keynes was forced to capitulate to Ramsey and accept the subjectivist approach to probability,is simply a myth that is handed down from one generation of illiterate economists and philosophers to the next.Keynes was the first decision theorist in history to develop an explicit interval valued approach to probability based on the earlier work of Boole.Keynes was the first scholar in history to explicitly define an index to measure the weight of the evidence,w, on the unit interval [0,1].He was also the first scholar in history to propose a decision rule,his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c,to take into account nonlinear probability preferences and the weight/uncertainty or ambiguity(Ellsberg´s more inclusive description,defined by his rho variable on the unit interval between 0 and 1) of the available evidence.Probability and weight are completely separate and independent of each other.Both variables are needed in a formal decision criteria. This book sets the record straight.In essay number 10(essay 24 of the "Essays..." book)the importance of D. Ellsberg´s optimism-pessimism index, alpha(as well as his application of sets of different probability distributions), has been overlooked by the author.Footnote 1 to that essay,as well as the material to which the footnote is appended, is deficient and needs to be revised.Keynes needed such a formal index in his GT.Instead,Keynes relied upon an informal analysis based on conventions and animal spirits.Ellsberg´s formal analysis strengthens the technical and theoretical foundations supporting Keynes´s theories of Liquidity Preference and the Marginal Efficiency of Capital.This book is an abridged version of my much longer "Essays on JM Keynes and...".It concentrates exclusively on Keynes´s contributions to probability,analogy,induction,and decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

How long is J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy?

J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy by Michael Emmett Brady is 0 pages long, and a total of 0 words.

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How Long Does it Take to Read J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy Aloud?

The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes to read J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy aloud.

What Reading Level is J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy?

J. M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy is suitable for students ages 2 and up.

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