How Long to Read On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

How Long Does it Take to Read On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism?

It takes the average reader and 43 minutes to read On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism by Paul Beaudry

Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more

Description

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.

How long is On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism?

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism by Paul Beaudry is 43 pages long, and a total of 10,879 words.

This makes it 15% the length of the average book. It also has 13% more words than the average book.

How Long Does it Take to Read On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism Aloud?

The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes and 59 minutes to read On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism aloud.

What Reading Level is On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism?

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism is suitable for students ages 8 and up.

Note that there may be other factors that effect this rating besides length that are not factored in on this page. This may include things like complex language or sensitive topics not suitable for students of certain ages.

When deciding what to show young students always use your best judgement and consult a professional.

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