How Long to Read Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments
By Kareem Ismail
How Long Does it Take to Read Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments?
It takes the average reader and 25 minutes to read Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments by Kareem Ismail
Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more
Description
Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in surveillance and program cases during 2003–2017. We find that large planned fiscal and external adjustments are associated with optimistic growth projections, with significant non-linearities for both program and surveillance cases. Specifically, we find evidence that larger planned fiscal adjustment is associated with higher growth optimism in IMF non-concessional, non-precautionary financial arrangements. Our results show the tendency for optimism has persisted in the period after the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, the strong correlation between the magnitude of the optimism and expected fiscal consolidation provides a cautionary signal for the post-COVID IMF projections as countries embark on a path of fiscal adjustment.
How long is Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments?
Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments by Kareem Ismail is 25 pages long, and a total of 6,375 words.
This makes it 8% the length of the average book. It also has 8% more words than the average book.
How Long Does it Take to Read Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments Aloud?
The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes and 34 minutes to read Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments aloud.
What Reading Level is Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments?
Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments is suitable for students ages 8 and up.
Note that there may be other factors that effect this rating besides length that are not factored in on this page. This may include things like complex language or sensitive topics not suitable for students of certain ages.
When deciding what to show young students always use your best judgement and consult a professional.
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