How Long to Read Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth

How Long Does it Take to Read Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth?

It takes the average reader and 33 minutes to read Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth by Francesca G Caselli

Assuming a reading speed of 250 words per minute. Learn more

Description

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States, the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.

How long is Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth?

Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth by Francesca G Caselli is 33 pages long, and a total of 8,349 words.

This makes it 11% the length of the average book. It also has 10% more words than the average book.

How Long Does it Take to Read Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth Aloud?

The average oral reading speed is 183 words per minute. This means it takes and 45 minutes to read Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth aloud.

What Reading Level is Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth?

Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth is suitable for students ages 8 and up.

Note that there may be other factors that effect this rating besides length that are not factored in on this page. This may include things like complex language or sensitive topics not suitable for students of certain ages.

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